BCREA ECONOMICS NOW
Canadian Monthly GDP Growth – September 30, 2013
The Canadian economy bounced back from a flood and labour unrest induced 0.5 per cent decline in June to grow 0.6 per cent in July. Growth was led by those industries hardest hit in the previous month, including construction, manufacturing and oil and gas.
The rebound in July’s economic growth provides some momentum for the economy in the third quarter. Our tracking estimate currently puts third quarter Canadian economic growth at roughly 2 per cent. However, growth in the third and fourth quarter may be challenged by yet another manufactured debt crisis in the United States as well as the impact of higher long-term interest rates. While the latter have moderated significantly since the US Federal Reserve opted not to slow its quantitative easing, rates could rise quickly if US economic data exceeds expectations. Our forecast for the Canadian economy in 2013 remains at 1.6 per cent real GDP growth.
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